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Seven years ago, at fifty, I closed the door on a long chapter of my professional life. For fifteen years, I had been the managing director of a company with 350 engineers, leading complex marine-design projects with real impact. With few exceptions, my entire professional life had been tied to shipbuilding and ship design.
And yet, when the time came, I felt exhausted and strangely detached from the professional identity I had carried for so long. I didn’t leave because I had a new plan or a clear vision. I left because the person I had become in that role no longer felt like me. After designing and implementing several cycles of operational growth and maturity—each requiring significant structural, organisational, and cultural change—the company had reached a level where preservation and maintenance mattered more than growth.
On one hand, I felt the mission was accomplished. On the other hand, I no longer liked the person I had become. Those fifteen years had been intense. I needed rest, space, and the freedom to think. At the same time, my family and I moved abroad, stepping into the unknown of a new culture, a new language, and a new way of life.
The biggest unknown was brutally simple: what do I do with my life now? I had proof of what I could achieve. I had built and led at scale, grown teams and leaders, envisioned operational growth, and found the right formula for an organisational culture that could sustain it. I touched lives in ways I could not have imagined—and, at times, in ways I did not even want.
But the deeper question - from here, where to? - had no clear answer. Excitement mingled with doubt. Would I find a path that gave me purpose and fulfilment? This was not a risk to be calculated. This was uncertainty in its rawest form.
Back then, I struggled to name the difference. Some challenges were clearly risky: finances, moving to a new country, relocating home, leaving old parents behind, adapting to a new language and society. Still, I could estimate probabilities, prepare contingencies, and imagine scenarios.
But other questions - “what do I truly want to do next?” or “what kind of work will bring meaning?” - had no measurable outcomes. No precedent, no data, no probabilities. Just unknowns.
I see the same in conversations with other leaders. Entering a new market could be measured and modelled—classic risk. But the AI technology disruption reshaping any industry and sector? A sudden collapse of trust in an institution? Or the reverberations of geopolitics? These aren’t risks. They are something else.
In his book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Frank Knight explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. According to Knight, risk is measurable. Probabilities exist, and you can calculate them. Therefore, you can hedge, insure, create more appropriate contracts and agreements, and plan for different predictable scenarios. Thus, history is a place to get useful data and let yourself be inspired.
Uncertainty, on the other hand, is the unknowable. Outcomes are not just unknown; they cannot be calculated. For leaders, that is the world of disruption, reinvention, and transformation. It is a world where the past no longer predicts the future. Therefore, the steps would be taken without a map, based rather on principles than on accurate data. These steps are also much smaller and intentional; learning is by doing, and failing fast is how to move towards the goal.
For decades, senior leaders have built careers on navigating risk. We gathered data, weighed probabilities, and placed informed bets. Even when the stakes were high, the rules of the game felt clear. The responsibility stood for a rational approach based on historical data and the calculation of probabilities. We trusted the systems and the processes put in place. And we had a sense of what can be a mistake, and our responsibility as managers would be to avoid it.
Today, the ground has shifted. More and more of what we face is not risk but uncertainty. The pandemic, global supply chain collapses, accelerating technologies, and shifting cultural norms—none of these came with reliable data or predictable outcomes. They didn’t just challenge business plans; they shook the very foundations of decision-making.
Our instinct as leaders is to look backwards, projecting the past into the future. But when the past no longer predicts, we stall. Overwhelm, paralysis, and even cynicism follow. Recognising uncertainty for what it is matters because it demands a different mindset that makes possible a different way of leading.
In uncertainty, the old tools of risk management no longer suffice. Spreadsheets and scenarios offer only partial comfort. What leaders need is not a better map, but a new mindset to act as their compass.
Acceptance: Acknowledging that much cannot be controlled or predicted frees energy for what can be influenced.
Courage: Moving forward deliberately, even without guarantees. Exploration, not perfection, becomes the standard.
Curiosity: Treating unknowns as opportunities to learn, not threats to avoid. Every misstep is new data.
Resilience: Building endurance - mental, emotional, organisational - to withstand turbulence without losing direction.
These qualities turn leadership into navigation. Not about holding on to certainty, but about adapting with clarity and presence when the map runs out.
Once I reframed uncertainty this way, I discovered practical strategies that made it less paralysing and more navigable.
1. Experiment in small steps. Large leaps are daunting. Incremental, intentional actions provide insights and flexibility.
2. Build flexible plans. In uncertainty, the plan itself must evolve. The plan is to be ready to change the plan.
3. Stay anchored in purpose. When the map is missing, your compass is purpose and values. They keep decisions aligned with long-term meaning.
4. Strengthen resilience. Develop routines, reflection, self-care, and financial or organisational buffers. They give space to adapt without panic.
5. Cultivate curiosity. See ambiguity as possibility. Ask questions, welcome diverse perspectives, and let exploration replace fear.
6. Embrace collaboration. Uncertainty is not a solo journey. Shared doubts and collective insights turn unknowns into terrain you can navigate together.
These practices don’t eliminate uncertainty, but they transform it into a space where leadership can thrive.
Looking back, I see that uncertainty is both a challenge and an invitation. It strips away the comfort of predictability, yet it opens doors to creativity, growth, and reinvention.
What leaders need more of now is courage: the willingness to act without guarantees, to step into discomfort, and to experiment in the unknown. But just as vital is compassion: for us and for those we lead. Not all things we try will be successful. As leaders, we need to be at peace with ourselves and others when progress is not as fast as planned or when we see that an explored road abruptly goes nowhere. Uncertainty is stressful and disorienting. Allowing space for mistakes, learning, and vulnerability creates cultures of psychological safety. It reminds us that leadership is not about perfection but about presence.
Leading in uncertainty is not about having all the answers. It is about guiding ourselves and others with clarity, courage, and heart.
The world we live in is more uncertain than ever. As such, we are all travellers with a map that’s still being drawn. The question is not whether we can control the path – often we will not be able to do so, but whether we can walk it with curiosity, resilience, and compassion. And perhaps the wisest plan of all is this: to be ready to change the plan.
Do you treat today’s challenges as risks or as true uncertainties?
When the map runs out, what guides your decisions?
What part of your plan would you change if the future refused to fit past patterns?
I look forward to continuing this conversation. I am here to support you in creating sustainable performance and genuine wellbeing.
Until next time, keep thriving!
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Seven years ago, I closed a chapter as managing director of 350 engineers. I had mastered risk calculations, forecasts, and measurable outcomes. But the deeper unknowns - purpose, direction, fulfilment - had no map. Today’s leaders face the same divide between risk and uncertainty. Risk can be calculated and, therefore, managed, but uncertainty demands courage, curiosity, and resilience. And sometimes the wisest plan is simply to be ready to change the plan.
Discover the thinking patterns influencing your perception and approach of the world. Evaluate your automatic response tendencies, find explanations for questions you have always put! Learn to recognize self-sabotaging narrative and to intercept it!
Based on POSITIVE INTELLIGENCE® | www.positiveintelligence.com | Alina Florea is a POSITIVE INTELLIGENCE COACH
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